Monday, March 16, 2009

Jim Rogers: Depression and Crude Oil

Bloomberg News:

The U.S. risks sending the world into a depression as its bailouts of failed companies rob healthy businesses of capital, investor Jim Rogers said.

“The U.S. is taking assets from competent people and giving them to incompetent people,” said Rogers, chairman of Singapore-based Rogers Holdings and the author of books including “Investment Biker” and “Adventure Capitalist.” “That’s bad economics.”

The U.S. government should let American International Group Inc., whose fourth-quarter loss was the worst in corporate history, go bankrupt, Rogers added in a Bloomberg Television interview today. Congress approved a $700 billion bank bailout package in October, and President Barack Obama’s administration has suggested it may need an additional $750 billion.

The U.S. is repeating the mistakes made by Japan in the 1990s and risks creating “zombie banks” by rescuing failed financial services companies that should have been allowed to go under, Rogers said.

New York-based AIG has received $173 billion in government aid, and had earmarked $1 billion in retention pay for about 4,600 of the company’s 116,000 employees so they won’t leave.

The Treasury this week intends to provide more information about a $1 trillion plan to remove distressed mortgage assets from banks’ balance sheets. The Federal Reserve is also scheduled this week to start the first phase of a $1 trillion program to revive the market for securities backed by consumer and business loans.

Oil Prices

Oil prices may rise to record levels in the future because of depleting reserves and a lack of major field discoveries, Rogers said. Crude oil in New York hit a record $147.27 a barrel in July and traded at $46.98 at 12:13 p.m. Singapore time.

“Reserves of oil are going down all over the world,” Rogers said. “The price of oil has to go much, much higher. I don’t know if the oil price will go up to record level in three years or five years. I don’t know when but I know it is.”

People should be prepared for inflation as governments worldwide are printing money to prop up economies at a time when commodities supply is under pressure, Rogers said.

“We’re going to have serious, serious inflation down the road,” said Rogers, who owns gold and silver. “I wish I knew when.”

Calls to return to the gold standard, when currencies were backed by bullion owned by governments, are flawed because it is “not going to solve our problems,” he also said.

Creative Commons License
This work by Nicholas E. Radice is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-No Derivative Works 3.0 United States License.